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A Great Pause?

COP 28 is about phasing out fossil fuels and replacing them with renewables. Great. But the climate science says something different. It says if we keep subsidising and using fossil fuels over the next couple of decades of transition, the horse will have bolted. A recent assessment by climate researchers confirms: "What is most urgently required is a rapid phase out of human induced activities that produce carbon pollution".* So what the science is really telling us, on analysis, is that there needs to be a "Great Pause", where the whole world basically stops what it is doing while we clean up our grids: 1. The climate is changing way faster than the models even a few years ago were predicting: On November 17 and 18 2023, the world was, on average, 2 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial levels for the first time in modern recorded history, and 2. The Stanford marshmallow experiment: The Stanford marshmallow experiment was a study on delayed gratification in 1972 led by psychologist Walter Mischel, a professor at Stanford University. In this study, a child was offered a choice between one small but immediate reward, or two small rewards if they waited for a period of time. During this time, the researcher left the child in a room with a single marshmallow for about 15 minutes and then returned. If they did not eat the marshmallow, the reward was either another marshmallow or pretzel stick, depending on the child's preference. In follow-up studies, the researchers found that children who were able to wait longer for the preferred rewards tended to have better life outcomes, as measured by SAT scores, educational attainment, body mass index, and other life measures. Further follow up research suggests that half of the influence on a child's ability to wait is environmental, not innate, and that is the good bit. We can reflect on what we are doing and we can learn and make decisions accordingly. Future generations are our future selves, in a way. What we do now will say a lot about the life metrics of our grandchildren, later. Can we as a species resist the temptation to have it all, now? Clearly, it will be hard for them to have a good life, later, if there is to be immense pressure on their environment, water security and migration. Not to mention they may need to move whole cities to slightly higher ground. Throw into the mix that we have made ourselves effective custodians of this planet for other species, too. The arguments for a Great Pause are compelling. We have had a great pause once already, for Covid. Remember? People could still do stuff. It was a bit clutzy, but we did it. And we learned. Under a new one, we could at least move around as much as we want - just without emitting. So, maybe it is time to do it all again? *Michael Mann, Distinguished Professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Science at the University of Pennsylvania
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